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April 3, 2000
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The year of the dark horseThe Money BureauIn financial year 1999-2000, the BSE Sensex opened at 3686.29 points on April 1, 2000 and closed the year at 5001 points on Friday - a gain of 35.66 per cent. The year has been eventful. It began with the Kargil crisis in May and ended with Bill Clinton's visit. And since markets always surprise, Kargil pushed the Sensex up while Bill Clinton's visit, although positive, pulled the market down! The Sensex also touched its all-time high in February at 6150 points. And this rise came mainly from the rich valuations of Infosys and a little help from Reliance and ITC. In this analysis, The Money Channel sifts through all the stocks listed on the BSE and finds out the returns over the year. Since low-priced stocks that appreciate rapidly distort the percentage returns, we took only those companies that were quoting above Rs 20 in the beginning of the year as well as on March 31, 2000. The prices are adjusted for bonus, rights and stock splits. The big industry winners are obviously software, entertainment and communications companies. But the top scrips that have gained the maximum aren't the usual suspects. The top gainer is Aftek Infosys, appreciating almost 37 times. The leader in the entertainment industry is Gramophone Company at Rs 1,352 from Rs 63. In telecom, Shyam Telecom and Himachal Futuristic are neck-and-neck at 1,800 per cent returns to investors. In software, Odyssey Technologies, Cyberspace Infosys and Atcom Technologies (Atco Industries earlier) are the top gainers. Needless to say, no market expert at the beginning of the year could have predicted any of these stocks to post such returns. Even in the five-bagger category, there are plenty of surprises. Among the well-known stocks, Zee, VisualSoft, Wipro and Infosys find a place. The surprises here are Mastek, ICICI Banking, Elbee Services, Global Tele and Apollo Hospitals -- all gaining handsomely. The list of losers is a gallery of the big-and-famous stocks, including many of the sought-after multinationals. Agrochemical companies like Cyanamid Agro, Punjab Chemicals, Bayer and AgrEvo are the big losers. ITC Agro-Tech and Marico have also fallen substantially due to the vagaries of oilseed prices. Last year's favourites pharmaceuticals and fast moving consumer goods companies have not only fallen from their subsequent highs, but also from their opening prices in April. This list includes Burroughs Wellcome, Abbott Labs, Fulford India and Wyeth Lederle in pharma, and Bata, Reckitt & Colman, Bausch & Lomb and International Bestfoods have fallen from grace. The year also shattered the investors of many other multinational companies. Punjab Anand Lamps, Esab India, Kvaerner Cementation, Vesuvius, Hind Lever Chemicals, Ingersoll-Rand, Madura Coats and Carrier Aircon have all halved. Suddenly, a year seems like a very long time. Many of the expected winners of last year like pharmaceuticals and fast moving consumer goods stocks have eroded investor wealth. If you were chasing them with the rest of the market and didn't book profits at the right time, you would be a loser. The emergence of the dark horses has a lesson for everyone in the forecasting business. We wonder what this list will look like same time next year. THE TEN-BAGGER CLUB
THE FIVE-BAGGERS
OTHER GAINERS
THE BIG LOSERS
(All prices adjusted for bonus, rights and stock splits) |
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