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April 3, 2000

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The year of the dark horse

The Money Bureau

In financial year 1999-2000, the BSE Sensex opened at 3686.29 points on April 1, 2000 and closed the year at 5001 points on Friday - a gain of 35.66 per cent. The year has been eventful. It began with the Kargil crisis in May and ended with Bill Clinton's visit.

And since markets always surprise, Kargil pushed the Sensex up while Bill Clinton's visit, although positive, pulled the market down! The Sensex also touched its all-time high in February at 6150 points. And this rise came mainly from the rich valuations of Infosys and a little help from Reliance and ITC.

In this analysis, The Money Channel sifts through all the stocks listed on the BSE and finds out the returns over the year. Since low-priced stocks that appreciate rapidly distort the percentage returns, we took only those companies that were quoting above Rs 20 in the beginning of the year as well as on March 31, 2000. The prices are adjusted for bonus, rights and stock splits.

The big industry winners are obviously software, entertainment and communications companies. But the top scrips that have gained the maximum aren't the usual suspects. The top gainer is Aftek Infosys, appreciating almost 37 times. The leader in the entertainment industry is Gramophone Company at Rs 1,352 from Rs 63.

In telecom, Shyam Telecom and Himachal Futuristic are neck-and-neck at 1,800 per cent returns to investors. In software, Odyssey Technologies, Cyberspace Infosys and Atcom Technologies (Atco Industries earlier) are the top gainers. Needless to say, no market expert at the beginning of the year could have predicted any of these stocks to post such returns.

Even in the five-bagger category, there are plenty of surprises. Among the well-known stocks, Zee, VisualSoft, Wipro and Infosys find a place. The surprises here are Mastek, ICICI Banking, Elbee Services, Global Tele and Apollo Hospitals -- all gaining handsomely.

The list of losers is a gallery of the big-and-famous stocks, including many of the sought-after multinationals. Agrochemical companies like Cyanamid Agro, Punjab Chemicals, Bayer and AgrEvo are the big losers. ITC Agro-Tech and Marico have also fallen substantially due to the vagaries of oilseed prices.

Last year's favourites pharmaceuticals and fast moving consumer goods companies have not only fallen from their subsequent highs, but also from their opening prices in April. This list includes Burroughs Wellcome, Abbott Labs, Fulford India and Wyeth Lederle in pharma, and Bata, Reckitt & Colman, Bausch & Lomb and International Bestfoods have fallen from grace.

The year also shattered the investors of many other multinational companies. Punjab Anand Lamps, Esab India, Kvaerner Cementation, Vesuvius, Hind Lever Chemicals, Ingersoll-Rand, Madura Coats and Carrier Aircon have all halved.

Suddenly, a year seems like a very long time. Many of the expected winners of last year like pharmaceuticals and fast moving consumer goods stocks have eroded investor wealth.

If you were chasing them with the rest of the market and didn't book profits at the right time, you would be a loser. The emergence of the dark horses has a lesson for everyone in the forecasting business. We wonder what this list will look like same time next year. Company

THE TEN-BAGGER CLUB
Company Price (31/3/2000) Price (1/4/1999) Gain (%)
Aftek Infosys 3618 95.7 3680.56
Odyssey Technologies 754 26.5 2745.28
Gramophone 1352 63 2046.03
Cyberspace Infosys 1139 55.5 1952.25
Shyam Telecom 741 38.25 1837.25
Himachal Futuristic 1693 87.5 1834.86
Atcom Technologies 423.7 22.8 1758.33

THE FIVE-BAGGERS
Company Price (31/3/2000) Price (1/4/1999) Gain (%)
Zee Telefilms 1022 97.7 946.06
Mastek 4263 417 922.30
ICICI Banking 260 27 862.96
Information and Tech 2532 265.95 852.06
Phoenix Mills 1390 155 796.77
Elbee Services 194.95 22.3 774.22
Bombay Swadeshi Stores 202 23.5 759.57
Global Tele-systems 2213 265.7 732.89
Apollo Hospitals 309.75 38.95 695.25
Sri Adhikari Brothers 1022 136 651.47
Salora International 292.1 39.5 639.49
Khandwala Securities 512.45 70.9 622.78
VisualSoft 7600 1105 587.78
Wipro 5493 810 578.15
SSI 4434 674 557.86
Hikal Chemical 282 44 540.91
Infosys 8902 1414 529.56
Panacea Biotech 420.1 67.9 518.70

OTHER GAINERS
Company Price (31/3/2000) Price (1/4/1999) Gain (%)
Jayant Agro 264.4 44.5 494.16
Crest Communication 507 85.45 493.33
Morepen 1090 190.4 472.48
Worldwide Technologies 231.15 43.25 434.45
Satyam Computer 4429 850 421.06
Goldstone Engg 324.2 63.05 414.20
Hitech Gears 325 65 400.00
Reliance Capital 167.1 33.5 398.81
LCC Infotech 165.15 33.3 395.95
Omega Interactive 148.35 30 394.50
Rossell 159 32.5 389.23
Alps Industries 163.15 34.25 376.35
Krone Communication 423.4 90.15 369.66
Nirma 1490 329 352.89
Ultramarine & Pigments 250 56.75 340.53
Sterlite 781 180.4 332.93
Leading Edge 1996 472.5 322.43
Relaxo Footwear 211 50 322.00
Mindteck 200.05 47.8 318.51
DSQ Software 1630 389.75 318.22
Sonata Software 1673 402.25 315.91
SB&T International 90.35 22.1 308.82

THE BIG LOSERS
Company Price (31/3/2000) Price (1/4/1999) Loss (%)
Cyanamid Agro 135.25 462 -70.73
ITC Agro-Tech 67.5 230.5 -70.72
Punjab Chem 64 218.2 -70.67
Punjab Anand Lamps 61 183.5 -66.76
Zodiac Clothing 95.05 277.1 -65.70
Marico 255 737 -65.40
Bayer (India) 925 2667 -65.32
Kothari Products 81.65234.8 -65.23
Tata Infotech 402.65 1068 -62.30
Esab India 37 97.95 -62.23
Vanavil Dyes 30.6 80.55 -62.01
Burroughs Wellcome 382 999 -61.76
Amara Raja 109 284.5 -61.69
Kvaerner Cementation 170 436.25 -61.03
Abbott Labs 540 1382 -60.93
Fulford India 297.8 754 -60.50
Vesuvius India 48.05 119.5 -59.79
Vashisti Detergents 26.8 66.65 -59.79
Sab Nife 31.25 77.6 -59.73
Ingersoll-Rand 225.45 559.75 -59.72
Bata 109 270 -59.63
Wyeth Lederle 271.05 670 -59.54
Voltas 41.55 102.5 -59.46
Madura Coats 20.55 50.55 -59.35
Hind Lever Chem 256 626 -59.11
Siris 56 136.8 -59.06
Modipon 21.1 51 -58.63
Williamson Magor 38.65 93.2 -58.53
SmithKline Pharma 222 527 -57.87
Alembic Glass 142.1 336.5 -57.77
Asian Electronics 39.3 92.55 -57.54
Carrier Aircon 90 211.8 -57.51
Gestetner 36 83.75 -57.01
Steelage 60.45 140 -56.82
Reckitt & Colman 210.2 483.25 -56.50
Bausch & Lomb 57.25 130.8 -56.23
E Merck 310 705 -56.03
Wartsila NSD 140 312.25 -55.16
Goodricke Group 59.2 131.4 -54.95
Honda SIEL 81.95 178 -53.96
Gulf Oil 61 130 -53.08
Malwa Cotton 48 102 -52.94
International Bestfoods 165 348.56 -52.66
Swaraj Engines 409 861 -52.50
International Travel House 30.7 64.35 -52.29
AgrEvo 420 860 -51.16
Glaxo 450 921 -51.14
Hitechi Jewellery 108.75 220.9 -50.77
Maral Overseas 26.5 53.25 -50.23
SSL 23.45 47 -50.11

(All prices adjusted for bonus, rights and stock splits)

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