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June 3, 2002
India comfortable at the fifth position
M J Manohar Rao and Srinivas Bhogle
By defeating West Indies 2-1 in the one-day series, India (40.88) have consolidated their hold on the fifth position; indeed, this is the first time since we introduced the Rediff ODI ratings early in 2002 that India have crossed the 40-point barrier.
India however still remain a good ten points below the "Big Four" of Aus (70.02), SA (60.69), SL (54.58) and Pak (51.58).
West Indies (35.15) have dropped by 1.10 points: first, because they lost at home (where they are known to perform significantly better) and, second, because this series result of 2-1 in India's favour replaces the previous result of 3-1 in West Indies' favour.
One just begins to "get the feeling" (a favourite expression with our cricket commentators!) that an Indian upswing may be starting. The matches in the NatWest series, starting later this month, will confirm if a positive trend is indeed building up.
The current scorecard for the major ODI playing teams is shown in Table A.
| TABLE A: ODI SCORE CARD (as on Jun 3, 2002) |
| |
| |
Aus |
Eng |
Ind |
NZ |
Pak |
RSA |
SL |
WI |
Zim |
|
Australia |
H
A
N
|
|
6 / 8
3 / 6
0 / 1
|
4 / 4
4 / 8
0 / 1
|
1 / 5
6 / 7
0 / 1
|
5 / 6
5 / 6
2 / 3
|
4.5/7
5.5 / 7
1.5 / 2
|
4 / 5
3 / 6
0 / 1
|
7/ 7
3.5 / 7
1 / 1
|
4 / 4
3 / 3
1 / 1
|
| England |
H
A
N
|
3 / 6
2 / 8
1 / 1
|
|
2 / 3
3 / 7
0 / 2
|
2 / 3
2 / 6
0 / 1
|
2 / 6
1 / 4
1 / 2
|
1 / 4
2 / 11
0 / 1
|
2 / 2
0 / 3
3 / 5
|
3 / 5
1 / 5
2 / 2
|
3 / 4
5 / 5
1 / 2
|
| India |
H
A
N
|
4 / 8
0 / 4
1 / 1
|
4 / 7
1 / 3
2 / 2
|
|
4 / 6
2 / 5
1 / 3
|
1 / 9
1 / 3
0 / 1
|
4 / 9
3 / 11
1 / 1
|
3 / 4
2 / 7
0 / 3
|
5 / 6
2 / 3
2 / 3
|
5 / 7
4 / 5
2 / 2
|
| New Zealand |
H
A
N
|
1 / 7
4 / 5
1 / 1
|
4 / 6
1 / 3
1 / 1
|
3 / 5
2 / 6
2 / 3
|
|
3 / 7
0 / 4
0 / 2
|
3 / 6
0 / 7
1 / 6
|
2 / 6
0 / 5
1 / 2
|
6 / 6
2 / 5
0 / 1
|
2 / 4
1 / 3
1 / 1
|
| Pakistan |
H
A
N
|
1 / 6
1 / 6
1 / 3
|
3 / 4
4 / 6
1 / 2
|
2 / 3
8 / 9
1 / 1
|
4 / 4
4 / 7
2 / 2
|
|
0 / 1
0 / 4
1 / 2
|
0 / 4
4 / 7
1 / 3
|
1.5 / 4
4.5/10
2 / 3
|
2 / 3
2 / 2
2 / 2
|
| South Africa |
H
A
N
|
1.5 / 7
2.5/7
0.5 / 2
|
9 / 11
3 / 4
1 / 1
|
8 / 11
5 / 9
0 / 1
|
7 / 7
3 / 6
5 / 6
|
4 / 4
1 / 1
1 / 2
|
|
7 / 9
1 / 5
1 / 1
|
8 / 10
5 / 7
1 / 1
|
2 / 3
3 / 3
1 / 1
|
| Sri Lanka |
H
A
N
|
3 / 6
1 / 5
1 / 1
|
3 / 3
0 / 2
2 / 5
|
5 / 7
1 / 4
3 / 3
|
5 / 5
4 / 6
1 / 2
|
3 / 7
4 / 4
2 / 3
|
4 / 5
2 / 9
0 / 1
|
|
3 / 5
0 / 1
1 / 1
|
5 / 5
3 / 4
2 / 2
|
| West Indies |
H
A
N
|
3.5 / 7
0 / 7
0 / 1
|
4 / 5
2 / 5
0 / 2
|
1 / 3
1 / 6
1 / 3
|
3 / 5
0 / 6
1 / 1
|
5.5/10
2.5 / 4
1 / 3
|
2 / 7
2 / 10
0 / 1
|
1 / 1
2 / 5
0 / 1
|
|
2 / 2
2 / 2
1 / 2
|
| Zimbabwe |
H
A
N
|
0 / 3
0 / 4
0 / 1
|
0 / 5
1 / 4
1 / 2
|
1 / 5
2 / 7
0 / 2
|
2 / 3
2 / 4
0 / 1
|
0 / 2
1 / 3
0 / 2
|
0 / 3
1 / 3
0 / 1
|
1 / 4
0 / 5
0 / 2
|
0 / 2
0 / 2
1 / 2
|
|
The current ODI rankings are shown in Table F, below.
| TABLE F: FINAL ODI RANKINGS (as on Jun 3, 2002) |
| Country |
Performance
index (RBI) |
Difference
16.5.02 to 3.6.02 |
Rank |
| Australia |
70.02 |
+0.04 |
1 |
| South Africa |
60.69 |
+0.17 |
2 |
| Sri Lanka |
54.58 |
+0.38 |
3 |
| Pakistan |
51.58 |
-0.19 |
4 |
| India |
40.88 |
+1.44 |
5 |
| England |
38.68 |
+0.07 |
6 |
| New Zealand |
37.50 |
+0.06 |
7 |
| West Indies |
35.15 |
-1.10 |
8 |
| Zimbabwe |
15.87 |
+0.10 |
9 |
In the forthcoming NatWest series, India, Sri Lanka and England play each other thrice. It would be very tedious to enumerate all the possible scenarios, but let us look at four scenarios for the league matches: in the first, India play "great" (three wins out of three against both Eng and SL), in the second, India play "well" (two wins out of three against both Eng and SL), in the third, India play "badly" (one win out of three against both Eng and SL) and, in the fourth, India play "horribly" (zero wins out of three against both Eng and SL). We must, however, alert readers that our calculations are based on certain simple assumptions and therefore not entirely accurate.
| TABLE G: INDIA IN NATWEST SERIES: GOOD AND BAD SCENARIOS |
| Scenario |
India's new performance index (RBI) |
England' new performance index (RBI) |
Sri Lanka's new performance index |
Relative
rankings |
| India beat Eng and SL thrice ("great") |
45.26 |
36.84 |
50.72 |
SL:4, Ind: 5, Eng: 7 |
| India beat Eng and SL twice ("well") |
43.43 |
37.96 |
52.05 |
SL: 3, Ind: 5, Eng: 6 |
| India beat Eng and SL once ("bad") |
41.33 |
38.99 |
53.17 |
SL: 3, Ind: 5, Eng: 6 |
| India lose to Eng and SL thrice ("horrible") |
38.96 |
39.93 |
54.05 |
SL: 3, Eng: 5, Ind: 6 |
Table G therefore suggests that, barring extreme performances, the relative rankings of the three teams will not change. But we will certainly be better placed to judge our hypothesis of a possible Indian resurgence.
M J Manohar Rao is professor and director, Department of Economics,
University of Mumbai, Mumbai; Srinivas Bhogle is scientist and head,
Information Management Division, National Aerospace Laboratories, Bangalore.
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Design: Imran Shaikh
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