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Will there be a war?

Don't blame me for asking that question which is in your mind: Will there be a war with Pakistan?

The way things are going -- shellings, mortar, rockets etc etc from across the border in Kashmir everyday -- the situation looks more dangerous than usual. Granted, that battles along the Line of Control is nothing new, but this is at a level not witnessed during the last two decades.

In Delhi, many feel the Bharatiya Janata Party government may get provoked by the series of massacres in Jammu and Kashmir and may go for tough measures against Pakistan to save its image. This, they feel, would enhance the possibility of a war. Home Minister Lal Kishinchand Advani has given enough indications of such measures in his speeches during the recent session of Parliament.

Advani's hints have made the people, especially the business community, quite concerned. Everybody knows that neither India nor Pakistan can afford a war at this point. If that happens, Pakistan's economy will be completely destroyed. India's may limp off the battlefield, but it will be in its worst-ever phase. Inflation will be sky-high, and no government would be able to face the fallout.

The political leadership in both the countries must, therefore, understand that their one blunder may cause the destruction of both countries. That will be a crime against humanity. Provoking wars for political gains is fatal; the people of both the countries do not want it.

A recent survey in a national daily shows that more than 80 per cent people are against war. The new generation in both the countries is more interested in economic development, modern technology, fashion etc, and not the politics of confrontation and battle at borders.

Political parties may say anything, but a few months after the nuclear explosions it is clear that the initial euphoria has worn off. The tests are no longer election issues. It is a fact that the relation between India and Pakistan was quite okay during the regimes of P V Narasimha Rao, H D Deve Gowda and I K Gujral. Things went wrong only after the nuclear explosions.

The next war would not be comparable with that in 1965 or '71. This time both the nations have got sophisticated and dangerous weapons. What is the guarantee that it would be conventional war? And if nuclear weapons are called for, the entire world will suffer.

Pakistan is not being practical about the Kashmir issue. It should realise that India cannot give up Kashmir. If Kashmir is a prestige issue for the Pakistan prime minister, it is a prestige issue for his Indian counterpart too. Pakistan should remain satisfied with PoK and India should be happy with the territory in its possession. Any change in this situation will invite war. We should not be carried away by emotions.

Pakistan's attitude in Colombo was not correct. Breaking dialogues at foreign secretary level was not advisable. There are ways still to resolve the differences. We can keep Kashmir aside and iron out our other problems first. And once the situation is conducive, we can talk Kashmir.

There are always some fanatics in every government. They force the country into do or die situations. Both Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharief are sensible, cool-headed beings. Both value neighbourly relations. And both have got a few ministers in their respective cabinets who are of the extreme view -- but ultimately it is their decision that will matter.

Rajiv Shukla