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The Rediff Election Special/Dr N Bhaskara Rao

Congress will get a clear majority in Delhi: survey

Despite a high 14 per cent of undecided voters in Delhi, the Congress appears to have a clear edge, with over 16 per cent of those who voted for the Bharatiya Janata Party in the earlier elections shifting their vote intention in its favour.

If the present trend continues for the next two weeks, the BJP's chances of crossing 26 seats in the 70-member Delhi state assembly appear bleak. The Congress, on the other, is heading for a clear majority.

The BJP's vote share on November 25 will be lowest since 1993. The erosion in the BJP vote base since the February 1998 Lok Sabha poll will be even more than the erosion between the 1993 assembly poll and the 1996 general election.

Rebel candidates in some six constituencies will eventually decide the fate of the two contending parties in Delhi. Three or four Independents and two or three candidates of other parties, like the Janata Dal, eventually may decide the character of Delhi's next government.

The split in votes will, however, affect the Congress' prospects of forming the next government, despite a significant shift of BJP voters in its favour which is a "negative vote" against the Sangh Parivar, essentially caused by resentment against the price rise.

These are some of the highlights of the latest Centre for Media Studies pre-poll survey in Delhi early this week, covering 1,800 voters in 36 assembly segments. There is a margin of error of plus or minus 177 -- three per cent of the findings.

Three-fourths of Delhi's voters were agitated about rising prices and felt this alone could affect the BJP's prospects of returning to power in Delhi. A little over two per cent of Delhi voters do not intend to cast their vote on November 25.

More than half the voters felt the Congress can offer a better government in Delhi, against 34 per cent who felt the same about the BJP.

With Sushma Swaraj at the helm, the BJP cannot hope to cross 25 seats, according to Dharmender Singh of the CMS. She has the backing of one-third of the voters, who thought the Sushma Swaraj factor has helped the BJP's chances.

However, only 39 per cent preferred Sushma Swaraj as the chief minister against the 43 per cent who opted for Shiela Dixit.

This is the second CMS pre-poll survey in Delhi. The first was conducted in August after the poll schedule was announced, and before Sushma Swaraj replaced Sahib Singh as Delhi's third chief minister since the last poll in 1993.

Two-thirds of the scheduled caste, Muslim and Christian voters preferred a Congress candidate. As did 47 per cent of Jat voters.

They also thought only the Congress could provide a better and stable government in Delhi. Thirty-five of Sikh voters thought the Congress a better option, against 45 per cent who felt the BJP could deliver the goods.

A majority of first-time voters too preferred to vote for Congress candidates.

Forecast of votes/seats in 1998 Delhi assembly poll Party No of seats % of votes BJP 24 to 26 38 Congress 38 to 40 42 JD/LD 2 12 Others 3 8

The vote shift forecast between 1993 and 1998 Party % change in vote share BJP - 4.82 Congress + 7.62 JD/LD (UF) - 1.24 Others - 1.56

Dr Rao, a well-known psephologist, heads the New Delhi-based Centre for Media Studies.

EARLIER REPORT:

'Delhi prefers Congress in assembly poll, wants Sonia as PM if BJP govt falls'

Assembly Election '98

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