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Sonia factor set to blow off Shekhawat in Rajasthan, says CMS survey

The Bharatiya Janata Party is in for a drubbing in Rajasthan during the forthcoming polls to the state assembly. The Congress is all set to get back to power in Rajasthan with a simple majority on its own.

The Congress's vote, however, has declined from its vote share in the 1998 Lok Sabha poll by 2.6 percentage points. But as compared to its vote share in the previous assembly poll, in 1993, it has gained 3.3 percentage points.

Aiding the Congress in its victorious return to the state assembly is the fact that the BJP's vote has declined by 3.6 percentage points over what it got in the 1998 Lok Sabha poll.

These are some highlights of a Centre for Media Studies survey conducted last week on voter perceptions and priorities in Rajasthan. The state will go to the polls on November 25.

The BJP, which won 95 seats in 1993, will lose almost 20 of them, while the Congress, which won 76 seats five years ago, will gain 24 seats. The major gains for the Congress will come from Haduti (comprising Ajmer, Dausa, Kota, Swai Mad, Tonk) and Shekhawati regions (comprising Alwar, Churu, Jaipur, Jhunjhun, Sikar) of the state.

Despite polarisation of voters between the BJP and Congress, Independents will continue to get not less than 10 per cent of the seats, the CMS survey shows.

Party	1993 Assembly Vote Share (%)	Lok Sabha 1998 Vote Share (%)	CMS Projections for Assembly Poll, 1998 Votes (%)	Seats
Congress	38.4	44.3	41.7	100
BJP	39.9	41.4	37.8	74
Independents	4.8	5.9	12.4	20
Others (UF etc)	9.8	6.0	8.6	5
BSP	-	2.3	2.2	0

With a clear 10 per cent of the electorate undecided about its voting intentions, the battle in Rajasthan is for wooing one-sixth of voters -- including about 5 per cent of voters who are in the "process of shifting preferences".

In fact, about one-sixth of those who voted for any party in the 1998 Lok Sabha poll, have changed their mind on the eve of the forthcoming assembly poll.

Basic needs, more specifically water, hospital, electricity and, of course, increase in the prices of essentials, seems to be the undercurrent for the shift in the voting intention of one out of every six who voted for the BJP in 1998, according to the CMS survey,

More than half the voters in Rajasthan think the BJP government at the Centre is an "ineffective" one.

Especially in the state, the BJP government is stuck with its image of non-performance. Anti-incumbency factor, on account of the BJP's rule both at the Centre and in the state, seems to have already dented Bhairon Singh Shekhawat's fortunes, and if this trend continues, says Dharmaraju, director, CMS, the BJP could be heading for a debacle with implications to its hopes at the next round of national polls.

Shekhawat seems to have lost his popularity with voters, and a little over half the voters in Rajasthan are not satisfied with his performance as CM.

Apart from the dent in his image, the CMS poll has found that Sonia Gandhi's charisma seems to be working in the Congress' favour in Rajasthan.

The euphoria over the nuclear tests in May also seems to be withering away, which is surprising considering that Pokhran is in Rajasthan. The survey shows that one-fifth of the voters hold this against the BJP. Even the BJP's pet theme, the Ayodhya temple, is not being viewed as an electoral issue anymore.

Irrespective of party preferences, a whopping 48 per cent of the voters prefer to see a "new face" as their candidate in the assembly poll, against 35 per cent who want to see their sitting MLA back as a candidate.

Asked who could be the best alternative to take over as PM should the BJP government at the Centre collapse, Sonia Gandhi was far ahead of anybody else, followed by Rajesh Pilot. A little over half the voters think Gandhi would succeed Atal Bihari Vajpayee as prime minister. More than one-third of those who intend to vote the BJP, think the Sonia factor will enhance Congress party's chances in Rajasthan.

The Congress seems to have gained back Muslims, SC and ST voters. Eighty per cent of Muslims and about two-third of SC and ST voters solidly stand by the Congress party. Two-thirds of Rajputs and half of the Sikh and Brahmin votes are with the BJP.

Some 2,400 voters, from 23 carefully selected assembly constituencies out of the state's 200, were personally interviewed for the CMS survey conducted last fortnight. The vote share projections of the two contending parties at the state level should be viewed with an error margin of 3.5 percent.

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