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Jaya's 'threats' are aimed at TDP

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham chief J Jayalalitha's decision to take an ''appropriate decision at the appropriate time'' on her party continuing support to the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government at the Centre owes mostly to her anxiety of ''not wanting to be caught napping''.

She ''does not want to put all her eggs in the Bharatiya Janata Party basket, at the same time does not want to topple it, either,'' according to informed sources.

Jayalalitha feels threatened by parties like the Telugu Desam Party and Trinamul Congress within the ruling coalition at the Centre.

Locally, she is afraid of losing the ''Opposition initiative'' to the Tamil Maanila Congress ally of the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. If her public indictment of the BJP not consulting the coordination committee on the recent price hikes of essential commodities was targeted at the TMC, her more recent utterances are aimed at the TDP and others.

''Jayalalitha foresees the possibility of the TDP having to withdraw support to the BJP, for its own reasons,'' says the source. ''That may lead to the possible fall of the Vajpayee government and the disintegration of the coalition. She does not want the 'threat initiative' within the BJP-led coalition passing on to someone else. Nor does she want to 'miss the bus', if another coalition government became possible at the Centre.''

Inside Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK does not want to share the ''Opposition space'' with the TMC, which has declared its intention to lead a ''third front'' in the state, against the DMK and the AIADMK.

The party had also planned a state-wide agitation on February 15, against the recent price hikes imposed by the Centre, and to press the state government, not to yield.

The decision has since been deferred in favour of the TMC joining the Left-sponsored nation-wide stir of February 9.

''Jayalalitha's 'first salvo' against the BJP, for overlooking the coordination committee in the decision-making, came soon after the TMC's original decision. Her concerns on the price issue are also real, and her forthright announcement also robbed the TMC of whatever mileage it could have attracted,'' says the source.

According to this source, ''Jayalalitha wants to keep not only the BJP, but also the Congress and the non-Congress Opposition guessing. By deciding to take an 'appropriate decision at appropriate times', she has sought to wrest the non-BJP initiative, both within and outside the ruling coalition. She is also building a case for withdrawing support to the Vajpayee government, if the evolving political situation compels her.''

It's in this background Jayalalitha decided not to 'sign on the dotted line' in the resolution adopted at the coordination committee meeting on Tuesday.

''It is to assert her position within the coalition, and to keep her options open for the future. Inside the state, she is under increasing political pressure, on issues like price-rise.''

Jayalalitha's stand may help revive the true spirit of the coordination committee, if the BJP leadership chooses to interpret it correctly, the source adds.

''She is opposed to the gag on coalition partners airing their views in public, as proposed in the coordination committee resolution. As a political leader with a mass base, she has to necessarily communicate her party's ideas and stands on various issues, both to the cadres and to the people. She has been doing this to the point of boredom in the last two years. Nor can she be expected to do anything else in the absence of the effective functioning of the coordination committee, which meets at the 'whims' of a select few.''

Indications are that Jayalalitha will not be the one to upset the applecart. ''Only if the Vajpayee government feels threatened from others, will the AIADMK try to jump the gun, if only to look convincing before the Congress leader of a possible alternative government at the Centre,'' he says.

In this context, the source refers to the Vajpayee government defending the legal line taken by Jayalalitha in her Supreme Court case against the Tamil Nadu government's special courts on the corruption charges involving her chief ministership.

''The AIADMK feels heartened at the Centre pressuring the DMK state government. As long as it stays that way, the BJP may have nothing much to worry from the AIADMK, provided it can keep other allies with it,'' he added.

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