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Opinion poll shows Naidu's TDP retaining Andhra

Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu is likely to return to power in the state assembly election due in November, a Marketing and Development Research Associates opinion poll has indicated.

Naidu's Telugu Desam Party may win 163 seats in the 294 member state assembly by polling 41.3 per cent of the popular vote, the poll conducted by MDRA has predicted. The TDP had won 219 seats in the 1994 assembly election, when it went to the hustings with N T Rama Rao as its leader. Interestingly, according to this latest poll, Naidu's TDP will score as many seats as it had when he split the party in 1995.

The Opposition Congress party, which has launched an aggressive campaign kick-started by its president Sonia Gandhi last week, may be able to capture 98 seats and 36.6 per cent of the votes, against only 26 seats it won in 1994.

The BJP and the two Communist parties may together garner 27 seats by collecting 17.1 per cent of the votes, the MDRA poll revealed. Independents and local Muslim parties may win the remaining six seats by procuring 5 per cent of the votes.

Naidu's critics have been accusing him of resorting to "gimmicks", and are attacking him for adopting pro-rich and anti-poor policies. But the findings of the opinion poll imply in no uncertain terms that Indian voters do appreciate sensible and imaginative policies even if they are not populist.

Launching the campaign from the temple town of Tirupati last week, Sonia Gandhi lambasted Naidu for adopting "pro-rich" and "anti-poor" policies.

Also last fortnight, Naidu's brother-in-law Harikrishna walked out of the TDP by accusing him of ignoring his late father NTR's populist policies. He has now floated his own outfit called the Anna Telugu Desam Party. NTR's eldest son-in-law Dr Venkateswara Rao quit the BJP and joined the ATDP.

AP 1999 ASSEMBLY POLL OUTCOME PROJECTION

Party Assembly - segmentwise performance in 1998 Lok Sabha poll 1999 Projection Vote Share (%) Seats (Nos.) Congress 138 36.6 98 TDP 117 41.3 163 BJP,CPI,CPI-M 34 17.1 27 Independents, etc 5 5.0 6

Analysts have been of the view that a rejuvenated Congress party under Sonia Gandhi's leadership, together with reforms involving withdrawal of subsidies, may lead to the defeat of the Naidu-led TDP in the state assembly elections this year end.

But the MDRA poll findings show that Harikrishna's ATDP is a non-starter as of now, and that the Congress is nowhere near winning enough seats to recapture power in Andhra Pradesh, which it lost to the TDP in 1994.

MDRA Project Director Naveen Surapaneni, said, "Unless the Congress party comes out with specific positive programmes for the state, it is unlikely to achieve the much-needed breakthrough to win enough votes to come to power". The Congress has nine months to win more votes and 50 additional seats than what has been projected by this opinion poll.

On the other hand, barely nine per cent of TDP voters interviewed said they will vote for Harikrishna's ATDP. A large number of those interviewed said there was no need for one more new party in the state.

Interestingly, only 20 per cent of the voters think Naidu's programmes, such as 'Janmabhoomi' and widening of roads, are "gimmicks". And 60 per cent think his programmes are "good and beneficial" and as many also want 'Janmabhoomi' be continued. Every third voter thinks the chief minister's policies are "pro-rich". But more than 40 per cent of the voters think his policies are "pro-poor".

Contrary to general belief that Naidu charmed primarily urbanites, a marginally higher percentage of rural voters think of Naidu positively, both in the case of his programmes, particularly 'Janmabhoomi', and also in terms of voting intentions, according to the MDRA poll.

More than half the voters said they think Naidu will be back as the state's chief minister after the polls, while every fourth voter believes he may not. Asked who will make a better chief minister between the TDP chief and the Congress party's candidate Dr Y S Rajashekhar Reddy, 60 per cent named Naidu while 21 per cent opted for Dr. Reddy.

Fortyfive per cent said the TDP has given the state a "better" administration than the Congress would have. However, 20 per cent said a Congress government would have done better than Naidu's regime. About 40 per cent of the voters think the TDP is a better organised party than the Congress in their respective districts, while 28 per cent think the Congress is better placed than the TDP.

The MDRA poll also revealed that, while Naidu's performance has many admirers in the state, most legislators came in for criticism for their non-performance. Every second voter said he would like to see the sitting MLA in his constituency changed.

Asked to identify Naidu's major failures in office, the voters identified the rise in prices of essential commodities, increase in electricity tariff, removal of prohibition, and dispensing with the two-rupees-a kg rice scheme.

Sixty per cent of the voters are critical of the hike in power tariff. Interestingly, half of them said they will still vote for the TDP.

The poll also found that the Congress has improved its position marginally among Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and Muslims since the 1998 general election. Despite internal bickering within the party's state unit, many are now rallying behind Dr Rajashekhar Reddy, who is the party's chief in the state and also its chief ministerial candidate. A majority of those planning to vote for the Congress said they would like to see him as the chief minister.

The poll further reveals that one-fifth of those who voted for the BJP in the Lok Sabha election may now vote for the TDP, while another one-fifth may shift their loyalties to the Congress, 10 per cent of those who voted for the Communist Party of India and the CPI-M may vote for the TDP in the assembly poll.

"But for the TDP's support to BJP lead alliance at Centre, Naidu would have been in a better position today," said psephologist Dr N Bhaskara Rao, commenting on the MDRA's survey findings.

The poll was conducted during the last week of January in 15 carefully selected assembly constituencies in the wake of the split in the TDP and an increase in electricity tariff in the state. In-depth personal interviews were conducted with 1,500 carefully selected voters. The sample is proportionate to voter population and is subject to a margin of error of four percentage points.

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