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India wary about US-Pak deal on withdrawal

Amberish K Diwanji in New Delhi

Despite India's stunning victories over the weekend -- diplomatic and military -- the external affairs ministry is cautious about the joint statement of United States President Bill Clinton and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharief.

The joint statement declared, among other things, that concrete steps would be taken to respect the Line of Control in Jammu & Kashmir.

In a statement, the ministry said American interlocutors had informed it that 'concrete steps' meant withdrawal of the Pakistani forces on the Indian side of the LoC.

It also noted the sequencing of steps agreed to, that only after the withdrawal is completed will other steps be initiated, and hoped Pakistan would heed this call immediately.

But it added that India would be watching "developments on the ground" and military action against the intruders would continue till the aggressors are cleared out and the status quo ante on the LoC is restored.

It further affirmed that the Lahore process is direct and bilateral, leaving no scope for third-party mediation. Ditto for other aspects of India-Pakistan relations.

Early this morning, Clinton called up and spoke to Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. While details of the conversation are not known, he did mention his talks with the Pakistani premier. Clinton's National Security Adviser Samuel R 'Sandy' Berger spoke to his Indian counterpart Brajesh Mishra, while Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott spoke to External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh.

External Affairs Ministry spokesman Raminder Singh Jassal refused to comment on the US-Pakistan talks except to say that India is watching the situation closely. He also refused to comment on the various calls made by top American officials to their counterparts in India.

Officials in the ministry remain wary and expect an important initiative soon. "Let us wait for a week. By then some details will tumble out of what actually transpired between the two. Right now, all we have is the US-Pakistani joint statement that is really just a glossy cover. The specifics are what we are worried about," said one.

The official pointed out that by agreeing to a joint statement, the Pakistani prime minister had bound himself to a withdrawal. But he cautioned, "There is every likelihood that a secret deal might have been struck on some aspect, which is not being revealed now."

The official worried that the US might later force a settlement of the Kashmir dispute or rake up the issue, much to India's discomfiture.

The reason for suspicion is the awareness among diplomatic circles that asking the intruders to pull out without a quid pro quo will be tantamount to political suicide for Nawaz Sharief. "He will have to sell to his people and the Pakistani military establishment something to convince them that pullout is a tactical step for a greater gain. Hence, the MEA is so cautious about the joint statement," said the official. Little wonder, then, that the ministry's statement did not say it "welcomes the joint statement".

One fear is that the Siachen Glacier dispute may become an issue. Under the Simla Agreement, the LoC has been demarcated only up to Point NJ9842, which is south of the Saltoro Range and the Siachen Glacier. From there on, the agreement leaves it open with the words "north from NJ9842". India today controls the glacier with its troops having seized it in a daring operation in 1983.

Meanwhile, the armed forces, which yesterday wrested the crucial Tiger Hill, today continued with their mopping-up operations. With the capture of Tiger Hill, any threat to the Srinagar-Kargil-Leh highway has been virtually eliminated.

"We are now sitting pretty," said an army officer. "Though we still have a few miles to go to drive the intruders beyond the Line of Control, the fact is that for the Pakistani forces, they now have no strategic or tactical purpose in staying behind."

The two key threats India faced when the intruders came in was the loss of the Srinagar-Kargil-Leh road and a threat to the Siachen Glacier supply lines. "The Siachen threat was really mild, regardless of what Pakistani generals say, and we eliminated that right in the beginning. But the threat to the highway was very real, and after recapturing Tiger Hill, the Pakistanis are now just holding some useless peaks. Holding such peaks will only cost them a lot and has no value," the officer added.

The armed forces are also watching the diplomatic negotiations closely. As Indian Air Force spokesman D N Ganesh told the Rediff Chat, "While we trust Nawaz Sharief to keep his word, there is no guarantee that his country [or his army] will obey his call to withdraw."

The armed forces will continue with the operations regardless of the negotiations until the intruders withdraw completely. But both the armed forces and the external affairs ministry refused to speculate on whether the forces might stop firing to allow the intruders to withdraw.

As the external affairs ministry official pointed out, "The supply lines are still open and they have to simply go back along that line. That is not very difficult."

The Kargil Crisis

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