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The Rediff Special/V K Raghavan

From a bang to a whimper

A year after the big bang of May 11, 1998, when the Buddha smiled in the deserts of Rajasthan, there is hardly cause for celebration. Neither bhangras nor bara khanas mark the passing of the year which was made eventful by matters which had little to do with issues nuclear.

Some had claimed that 1998 would usher in an Anno Bombini to replace the Anno Domini that marks our lives. As things have turned out, it has been an Annus Horribilis for the BJP alliance. The final irony has been the decision of the villagers of Khetolai -- the village closest to the nuclear test sites -- to take a long march to Sarnath. The message is not lost on the common man, that this government cared more for its image than the well-being of its people in conducting the nuclear tests.

The year after the tests, with some exceptions, turned into one of non-performance. The economy is creeping, despite the spin put on it by the sarkar. There is no sign of the strategic defence review that was put out as the defining event in India's security management. A nuclear doctrine has been put forth comprising of no-first-use and minimum credible deterrence. It remains more a statement of intent, not so far backed by evidence of the infrastructure necessary to manage the deterrent.

The National Security Council, as it is structured now, can hardly be expected to produce meaningful studies or analyses. No one knows what it has been tasked to do so far and what, if anything, it has done.

In Pakistan, there is after the tests a colossal challenge of keeping the economy going in an extremely adverse balance-of-payments situation. The government of Nawaz Sharief seems to find itself in all kinds of embarrassing difficulties. On May 11, exactly a year to the day after Pokhran II, Eqbal Ahmed, a much-respected scholar and critic of the nuclear tests, passed away in Islamabad. The response in the media and in private circles overwhelmingly described the demise of this fearless critic as a major loss to Pakistani polity.

Ahmed had been manhandled in Pakistan soon after May 1998 when he had criticised the tests. Pakistan is agog with the alleged disappearance of Najam Sethi, another fearless critic of the government. On May 11, there was hardly a mention of the nuclear capability of Pakistan in its media or the public. Just as there were no celebrations in Pokhran, there were none in the Chagai hills.

India and Pakistan have both entered the era of political uncertainty and instability when there is need for sound, long-term policies. The economic and security policies of both nations will need to be on a new footing if South Asia is to be stabilised and set on a course to prosperity.

There is no consensus in India on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The caretaker government is apparently more interested in transferring civil servants and governors than in working on a policy consensus. Pakistan has, on the other hand, delinked itself from India on CTBT and is prepared to make a decision on its own.

It is a good move and in keeping with the rights of a sovereign and independent nation. It can also put tremendous pressure on India if Pakistan decides to sign and ratify the CTBT. It may do so for economic and other considerations, and these will meet its security concerns equally.

In this otherwise unsatisfactory situation, can there be reasons for hope? I think there are enough reasons to be hopeful of stability in the nuclear weapons arena. The BJP conducted a long series of high-level talks with the US on security in the new world order. They were not made public knowledge with good reason.

No doubt they built a better understanding of the two parties' perceptions and needs. It is to be hoped that the contents of the talks will be made known to the next government and the Opposition -- as the case may be -- after the elections. The government has also engaged the other members of the nuclear set in discussions and restored confidence levels to a considerable extent.

This has led to a shift in the Chinese response to India. It has moved away from chastising India and restarted the joint working group meeting after a long lapse. The Lahore Declaration and the Memorandum of Understanding signed at the same time are significant steps in building a new confidence structure between India and Pakistan. Even as a caretaker government, the BJP has offered to continue the composite talks with Pakistan and the latter has responded favourably to it.

The political leadership in both countries has displayed an awareness of risks involved in basing security on nuclear weapons. They have reduced the rhetoric and moved forward, shifting the focus from nuclear weapons to tentative co-operation and confidence-building measures. There is greater awareness that security is a function of economic growth and political stability.

Economic growth creates leverages that strengthen security while stability builds respect in the international arena. South Asia has demonstrated in the year after the big bang that it is not going to be a flashpoint leading to a nuclear exchange. Neither the people nor the leaders are interested in doing anything that can lead to war. If the nuclear tests of May 1998 have contributed to a better understanding of the factors which ensure security, a big bang birthday may not be such a bad thing after all. It is a good time to remind ourselves that there is much work to be done for peace and no special cause to rejoice.

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