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Experts Say Pakistan's Troubles Won't Help India

Shubada Deshpande in New York

The spectacle of New Delhi swearing in an elected multi-party government certainly looks good for India's image in contrast to the display of military might in Pakistan but how much of advantage can India reap from the recent events in Pakistan?

James F Hoge, Jr, editor of Foreign Affairs magazine, believes that General Pervez Musharraf's action will nudge Washington closer to New Delhi. He is convinced that Washington has lost interest in Pakistan following the end of the Cold War and the ascension of fundamentalist forces in that country. Besides, India with its huge middle class and democratic institutions, is becoming increasingly attractive to America, Hoge feels.

But Fareed Zakaria, the Bombay-born managing editor of Foreign Affairs, is clear the army take over is not good for both Pakistan and India. With the nationalist government in New Delhi gloating over the rise of military in Pakistan, Zakaria feels the tension between the two countries could increase and the political differences would not be solved.

Zakaria, echoing the sentiments of many pundits in Washington, said the Nawaz Sharief government was not an ideal government, having led an assault on civil liberties and democratic institutions.

There are many rumors swirling in Washington that Sharief was warned not to dismiss Musharraf, but decided to ignore the advice, feeling that the last time he heeded Washington and ordered the withdrawal of soldiers from Kargil, his political stars began plummeting fast.

Whatever Sharief's shortcomings are, the military cannot be expected to be a model of good government, warned many academics.

The warnings continued even as General Musharraf offered to cut down the armed forces across the Indian border and assured religious leaders not to attack the minorities in Pakistan. Many diplomats and political observers in Washington and New York felt General Musharraf was trying some smart damage control, and aware of the world opinion against his coup was trying to pose himself as a moderate determined to bring back rule of law and civil liberties in Pakistan.

"He surely wants Bill Clinton to visit Pakistan," said one diplomat, referring to the demand by several Congressmen, including Gary L Ackerman, that Clinton should keep Pakistan out of his south Asian travel program. "He will try his darnest best to win over Washington."

"General Pervez Musharraf will make the usual statements that democracy will return etc... I don't take it seriously as he was the same foolish individual who spearheaded the Kargil effort," said Professor Sumit Ganguly, who is at the political science department at Hunter College, New York, and also teaches at Yale University.

"The citizens are celebrating Sharief's departure, but not another military rule. Military rule is the most retrograde step to take at the turn of the century," he said, adding he did not there was "much diplomatic gain to be had by India."

"India needs to remain calm, watch its borders and avoid any comment," he said.

"I would say that the difference speaks for itself. On the same day that Pakistani army stages its fourth military coup, in India the election was held (despite incidents of rigging) and the prime minister is sworn in. The difference speaks for itself loudly and clearly. So, at this point, India should not try to seek any diplomatic gains from this.

"The coup itself was not surprising because there was an inevitable pattern that preceded it," he said.

Marshall Buton at the Asia Society believes that many in the Pakistani military understood that they could not govern the country effectively, but also that they have now seen fit to intervene in the political process four times.

An independent Pakistani television producer, who covered the last election in Pakistan, says: "We Pakistanis had begun calling our country the Pakistan Banana Republic. Until the point that the country got nuclear capability, people were happy. But after that everything collapsed. The people realize it was a wrong move.

"This coup was badly needed as things had gone beyond control. It was expected, and has not come as any surprise. We are rejoicing because Sharief had begun behaving like a khalifa -- chief Islamic leader. A single person making laws was fine 1,400 years ago during the time of the Prophet, but these are modern times. However, we have had the rule of General Ayub Khan and General Zia for example and we hardly need another rule like that.

"What the people really want is the new system where all party leaders who have looted public money should be flushed out. That is why the airports are closed so that nobody can escape. The banks are also closed so that these guys cannot transfer funds.

"Firing the army chief when he was visiting Sri Lanka was a very foolish move and people have seen through that. Even the chief justice of Pakistan, Sajjad Ali Khan, was ousted in this manner.

"While Sharief ordered the troops to withdraw from Kargil... he [also] declared martial law in Sind."

Masood Haider, bureau chief, Dawn, in New York, says there is "a sigh of relief as the people of Pakistan were quite disgusted by the corrupt government."

Despite Canada wondering whether Pakistan should be allowed to be within the Commonwealth and the widespread condemnation of martial law, Haider notes: "As far as the international impact is concerned, they have accepted the facts.

"Diplomatic relations will not change either. Pakistan has had military rule in the past and have maintained their relations with the US. The concern over war with India is also unfounded. This is naturally being voiced by Americans because of the two countries's nuclear capabilities. Much has been made out of this, but there will be no war."

A P Kamath contributed to the report.

Next: From The Dross To The Divine

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