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The Rediff Special/ S B Ramanujan

The Americans are coming, the Americans are coming

India awaits the first US presidential visit in 22 years with a mixture of eager anticipation that behooves the dawn of the new millennium and a lurking mistrust arising from decades of Cold War orientation. Will this be a substantial visit or just a photo-op? Does he come here as a friend or broker? Will it signal the dawn of a warm new equation or a testy reaffirmation of the star-crossed ties between two countries that one diplomatic historian aptly called 'Estranged Democracies?' Both the polity and ordinary people are abuzz with these questions.

The first question that needs to be put away is whether Bill Clinton is a lame-duck president making a token visit to a part of the world that has remained unattended to on the US diplomatic radar screen. Given his track record, it may well be said that Clinton is more a dame luck president than a lame duck president. Gags apart, the lame duck tag is a lot of baloney. It does not work that way.

In democracies, there is a certain institutionalisation of diplomatic initiatives that survive change of governments. If one goes by the assumption that governments should not entertain leaders who may be on their way out, then both Washington and Moscow should not have even greeted H D Deve Gowda and I K Gujral, whose stay in office hung by the vagaries of India's turbulent coalition politics.

Besides, the Clintons – both Mr and Mrs – are going to be around for quite some time in positions of influence. This is a president who is going to retire at age 54. With at least another 20 productive years ahead of him he is going to play a role on the world stage – and it could be a pretty prominent role at that. There is sufficient indication to show that he will continue to take interest in this part of the world. His wife may be a senator, and more. A Bush or Gore administration will certainly not be reversing any Clinton initiative.

In terms of content, there will not be anything spectacularly substantial to the visit. Already, both sides have made it clear that there will not be any great 'give.' India will not give the non-proliferation trophies that the Clinton administration covets so much; and Washington will not completely ease sanctions and clear transfer of high-tech items that New Delhi sees as a litmus of American forgiveness of its nuclear 'trespasses.'

But both sides have learnt to make adjustments outside these currently tricky and immovable benchmarks. There will be what is being called a 'vision statement' that will lay out broad areas of co-operation between the two countries in areas like energy and environment.

This may not sound particularly exciting to those who want Uncle Sam to envelop India in a warm bear hug and give it the military toys that it allows its closest allies to buy and play around with. But there is a value to US co-operation in civilian areas that is of equal strategic significance to that of a military tie-up.

In that sense, the process of Clinton's visit, the gradual normalisation of ties and acceptance of the differences between the two sides will in itself be the principle achievement of the trip. Remember it was less than two years ago that India stunned the world with its nuclear tests, and to carry the test metaphor further, embarked on a particularly testing time in its ties with the US. To overcome all that testiness and lay the ground for an institutionalised relationship that recognises the differences and celebrates the commonalities is itself a remarkable feat.

In fact, the piece de resistance of Clinton's visit may not be what undoubtedly will be a stirring speech to the joint house of Parliament or the magnificent banquet at Rashtrapati Bhavan or Hyderabad House. The high point will actually be the President's visit to Hyderabad, whose programmers and code writers have done more for Indo-US relations than Socialist netas and South Bloc mandarins emerging from their Cold War mindset.

Indeed, people to people contact is what is really driving Indo-US relations today. This is what sparked off the US administration's interest in India in the mid-90s, this is what overcame the trauma of the nuclear tests, and this is what has brought about a renewed appeal of India to the US.

Something like a million Indian white collar professionals stamping their imprint in the United States, another 50,000 plus streaming into the country every year (a number that may soon go up to 100,000). An export orientation in which services are outweighing goods. Is it any surprise the Indian center of gravity is shifting from New Delhi and Bombay to Hyderabad and Bangalore?

Clinton's visit down south will be an affirmation of not just the shift in emphasis from politics to economics (and within that a move from traditional industry to high tech – or in Americanese, from Dow to Nasdaq), but also a celebration of India's growing strength as a federation. To those of you come from the boom cities south of Vindhyas and recognise the American yen for pioneers, it should come as no surprise that Chandrababu Naidu gets more attention in the US than Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Bangalore and Hyderabad are getting written about more than any other Indian city.

If you have read 900 words without the mention of any other country, that is what the trip is meant to affirm. This visit is about Indo-US relations. Time and against, Washington has said – and New Delhi has concurred – that Indo-US ties should stand on its own. It's time for both countries to live up to that.

CLINTON VISITS INDIA:The complete coverage

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