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Denials notwithstanding, Gupta's days are numbered

Tara Shankar Sahay in New Delhi

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Ram Prakash Gupta is on his way out, the BJP chief Kushbhau Thakre's denial nothwithstanding.

The fact that his days are numbered was indicated by a party general secretary who said, "Ram Prakash Guptaji is on his way out, that is certain. But whether it will be soon or will take a few more months, depends on his ability to persuade the prime minister and the party leadership to give him more time to prove his mettle."

Gupta is using his proximity to the RSS leaders and his old association with them to save his chair. Party vice-presidents K Jana Krishnamurthy and Jagdish Prasad Mathur, both veteran RSS hands, indicated that many among the BJP were keen on Gupta's continuance as chief minister.

"Our party president has himself stated that Guptaji is not being removed now. That should set at rest all speculation to the contrary," asserted Krishnamurthy. But neither he nor Mathur were willing to say how long Gupta would continue as chief minister.

The fact that Gupta has made two visits to New Delhi within a fortnight to plead with prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the party leadership to let him continue, suggests that he himself is not so sure about his continuance after the Uttaranchal issue was seized by his party's allies in the state to fire a salvo against him.

The BJP's ally in the state, the Loktantrik Congress Party, threatened to withdraw support to the Gupta government if Hardwar district was included in the proposed hill state. The LCP's Naresh Aggarwal made this assertion recently, causing the CM to rush to Delhi to give his side of the story.

Actually, Gupta has been caught in a crisis of the BJP's own making. The party had garnered votes and won substantial parliamentary seats in the state by promising the creation of Uttaranchal if it retained power. Now that the BJP government is well-ensconced both at the Centre and in Uttar Pradesh, it cannot afford to defer the vital question.

According to BJP officials, Gupta's predicament is partly attributable to himself and partly to the party leadership. Gupta's allegedly undiplomatic and rude behaviour with his government's allies, especially the NCP, is a hot topic of conversation in Lucknow. It has given his detractors the scope to fire their salvos against him.

The sources emphasised that Gupta's interaction with the allies and even some of the party MPs and MLAS left much to be desired, his gruff manner and stand-offish conduct not helping matters any.

Gupta's plight has been aggravated by the clutch of political rivals aspiring to succeed him. At the vanguard of this lot is senior state minister Kalraj Misra who, the sources pointed out, had been angling to step into Gupta's shoes. Misra's supporters in the party's central unit, are using their reach and clout with 7 Racecourse Road -- the PM's official residence -- in a bid to have him installed as chief minister. But since Gupta was sworn in over the claims of many others, the prime minister is said to be weighing the question whether it would be prudent to have him replaced.

Another aspirant is the UP speaker Kesrinath Tripathi.

Significantly, BJP sources pointed out that the next two days would be crucial for Gupta since Prime Minister Vajpayee, Union Home Minister L K Advani and BJP chief Thakre are scheduled to meet over the weekend to settle the vexed UP question.

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