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NDA assessing possible fall-out if Trinamul parts ways

Tara Shankar Sahay in New Delhi

The ruling National Democratic Alliance is assessing whether the probable breakaway of the Trinamul Congress and its subsequent tie-up with the Congress in West Bengal can have a 'cascading' effect on the coalition and precipitate its disintegration.

The exercise, under Home Minister Lal Kishen Advani, is on even as Trinamul chief Mamata Banerjee has been asked to hold her horses on the demand to impose President's rule in Bengal until Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee returns from the United States, a senior home ministry official said.

Banerjee's party has nine members in the NDA, which has a total strength of 308 in the Lok Sabha. (The resignation of Bharatiya Janata Party leader Uma Bharti has not yet been accepted.) The figure needed for a simple majority in the House of 541 members is 272, so the Trinamul's departure will not seriously affect the government's stability.

However, if the Telugu Desam Party headed by Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Nara Chandrababu Naidu were to follow suit, the government's position would become precarious.

The home ministry official, who had just returned from a visit to Bengal, said intelligence reports from the state suggest that Banerjee is adamant that the Centre should declare its stand, whatever it is, on President's rule so that she can chart out her party's future course of action.

According to the reports, Banerjee is contemplating an alliance with the Congress in the state for next year's assembly election in case she has to part ways with the NDA.

The official underscored that Defence Minister George Fernandes had earlier given an identical report to the Centre after which there was 'some concern' among Advani and other central leaders.

"Yes, the government wants the West Bengal affair to be resolved amicably to the satisfaction of all the NDA constituents," said senior BJP politician M Venkaiah Naidu. He, however, pointed out that the Centre was still 'examining' the feasibility of imposing President's rule. A final decision will be taken only after Vajpayee returns from his foreign trip, he added.

According to the home ministry official, the intelligence reports emphasised that Muslim leaders from the Congress and even the Communist Party of India (Marxist) are now jumping on to the Trinamul bandwagon. These Muslim leaders have told Banerjee that she can dethrone Jyoti Basu as chief minister if she improves her secular image by distancing her party from the NDA.

It is learnt that former CPI-M leader Badshah Alam, who had two years ago physically assaulted Banerjee in Calcutta, has now joined the Trinamul Congress and even sworn to give up his life to protect her.

Alam is one of the many young Muslim leaders who see Banerjee as the sole political benefactor of their community. According to Trinamul leader Pankaj Banerjee, the Muslim leaders in the CPI-M are getting increasingly disillusioned with the party. "Even Jyotibabu [Chief Minister Jyoti Basu] has lashed out against his own party which, by his own confession, has remained lethargic and inactive in the state," Banerjee asserted.

He contended that it was because of the CPI-M's alleged complacency after being in power for 24 years in West Bengal that the Trinamul had started making its presence felt in the state. And because Mamata had exposed the 'CPI-M's duplicity and tall claims', there was a rush in the state to join the Trinamul, he said.

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