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Mamata awaits Vajpayee's return

Tara Shankar Sahay in New Delhi

The day of reckoning has arrived.

Trinamul chief Mamata Banerjee is impatiently awaiting Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's return from his US trip on Tuesday night to decide whether his verdict regarding President's rule in West Bengal prevents or hastens her departure from the National Democratic Alliance.

"We have heard that the prime minister has expressed (in Frankfurt, while in transit) his reluctance about central rule in West Bengal. But we want to hear from Vajpayeeji what actually his decision is," said Trinamul Lok Sabha leader Sudip Bandopadhyay.

He emphasised that Mamata would "not act'' before Vajpayee indicated his decision. But his emphasis on the word "act" revealed that the Trinamul chief was in an aggressive mood and given her impulsive nature "anything can happen", Bandopadhyay pointed out.

Vajpayee appears to be caught between the devil and the deep blue sea on the issue of West Bengal, where Chief Minister Jyoti Basu has bared his political fangs and thrown a challenge to the NDA government - impose President's rule in my state if you have the guts!

The NDA burnt its fingers earlier due to lack of majority in the Rajya Sabha when it sought to impose President's in the Rabri Devi-ruled Rashtriya Janata Dal government in Bihar. That caused it much embarrassment and boosted the Opposition morale.

Consequently, the Vajpayee government is not keen about imposing President's rule in Mamata's native state. However, since her Trinamul Congress is a constituent of the NDA, the prime minister is constrained to make a 'song and dance' relating to conducting various exercises - examining the feasibility - of central rule in West Bengal to assuage the aggressive Trinamul chief.

Central rule in West Bengal is something which the Vajpayee government can ill-afford although it could still declare five of the state's districts (including Bankura and Hooghly) "disturbed".

However, Bharatiya Janata Party leaders cautioned against speculation on West Bengal, underlining that party chief Bangaru Laxman would be undertaking a tour of the violence-affected districts.

Party spokesman M Venkaiah Naidu pointed out, "Let Laxmanji first tour West Bengal and only then can an overall decision emerge on the state." He repeated his allegations against the government in the state, stressing that "law and order simply does not exist there".

According to Naidu, Vajpayee had to have all the possible "inputs" about ground realities in West Bengal and he could be buttonholed into taking a decision on President's rule.

BJP sources contended that while the "departure" of the Trinamul from the NDA would not trigger the ruling coalition's collapse, hectic efforts are on to make her "see reason''.

The NDA's strength in the Lok Sabha stands at 309 seats in a House of 541. The Trinamul has nine members. If it leaves the NDA, its strength will diminish to 300 seats, which is 28 seats more than a simple majority.

The BJP leadership is concerned about the Trinamul jettisoning the NDA, as the resultant 'cascading effect' could spur its other constituents to follow suit and ring the death-knell of the Vajpayee government.

However, Mamata, like other NDA constituents, is aware about its lack of majority in the Rajya Sabha and, therefore, her insistence that the government impose central rule obviates the fact that she appears determined to break away from it for other reasons.

Government intelligence had emphasised that she has realised that for her chief ministerial ambition to come to fruition, she had to enjoy the support of Muslim voters in West Bengal. Now that some Muslim leaders from the Communist Party of India-Marxists and the Congress have joined her party, it is not beyond the realm of reason that she is seeking an excuse to ditch the NDA.

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