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BJP leadership in a huddle
over Mamata threat

The Bharatiya Janata Party leadership went into a huddle to take stock of the political situation emanating from the resignations of Union Railway Minister Mamata Banerjee and her senior Trinamul Congress colleague, Minister of State for External Affairs Ajit Panja.

Although Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee rejected their resignations, Mamata underlined that the resignations were in protest against the price hike in petroleum products. She asserted that her party would part company with the ruling National Democratic Alliance at the Centre if the price hike was not rolled back within three days.

Their resignations, which sent shock waves within the NDA and overshadowed Saturday's cabinet expansion, has put the government on the horns of a dilemma. Since Mamata's pre-condition for withdrawing the resignations was her demand that the Centre roll back the price hike, a BJP general secretary pointed out that the "matter could have reached a point of no return."

Evidently, the government can ill-afford to roll back the hike considering that the international prices of crude oil has skyrocketed in the past fortnight to over $36 per barrel. And considering its apparent inability to concede the Trinamul chief's demand, it appears that the government may be forced to bid adieu to the Trinamul.

Trinamul leader Pankaj Banerjee told rediff.com that "the BJP leadership should not have taken our party's support for granted." He referred to Mamata's unhappiness for not being taken into confidence regarding the hike. He pointed out that she made her displeasure obvious on the matter during the recent NDA co-ordination committee meeting and had also hinted that she would take an independent course of action if voters in West Bengal were let down.

Mamata knew that it would be well nigh impossible for the government to impose President's rule in West Bengal, as demanded. But with assembly elections in the state barely seven months away, she wanted to have her cake and eat it too - ingratiate herself with voters of West Bengal by acting as a martyr ( for the Centre's inability to clamp President's rule in the state) and walking out of the NDA.

She could also consolidate her constituents by taking on both the Centre and ruling Left Front, smug with the knowledge that she would be perceived as a leader of the masses for sacrificing power.

Mamata's popularity zoomed for her party's role in fighting Marxists in West Bengal and offering an olive branch to the minority community. In the last few weeks, Muslim leaders from the Communist Party of India-M and Congress hitched on to the Trinamul bandwagon. Consequently, Mamata realised that she may have a chance to succeed Chief Minister Jyoti Basu if she won the confidence of Muslims in the state.

There is speculation that the Trinamul's break-up could trigger realignment of political forces at the Centre and sound the death knell of the BJP-led government.

Although the Congress has played a wait-and-watch role pertaining to Mamata's actions within the ruling NDA, Congress chief Sonia Gandhi's recent visit to West Bengal to assess the flood situation led to some anticipation for protagonists of a Trinamul-Congress alliance if not a merger.

Significantly, the Congress chief whip in the Lok Sabha and party parliamentarian from Raiganj Priyaranjan Dasmunshi recently accompanied Mamata to Vajpayee's office to seek a special package for flood-affected West Bengal. Vajpayee agreed to give the package.

West Bengal Congress chief and Congress Working Committee member Pranab Mukherjee has also stayed in touch with the Trinamul chief in Calcutta, setting many political tongues wagging. It has caused the feeling to gain ground that Mamata is keeping her options open for a "honourable way out" of the ruling coalition so that her regional political ambitions can come to fruition.

The BJP leadership has calculated that in the event of the Trinamul parting company with the NDA, the ruling coalition will be left with a more than adequate Lok Sabha strength of 300 seats. The Vajpayee government needs a simple majority of 271 in a House of 541.

"Vajpayee needs more than just political sagacity to overcome the crisis. He needs some real good luck," pointed out another BJP general secretary recently appointed by party chief Bangaru Laxman. That statement may just prove to be axiomatic.

With Mamata adamant that the prime minister roll back the hike or it parts company, the government has been caught in a Catch 22 situation. The next three days - Mamata's deadline for meeting her demand - will indicate whether the government outsmarts the Trinamul chief or falls victim to her considerable wiles and guiles.

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