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The chosen path Time is running out      for Musharraf Myth vs reality India has lost the      PR war What if Musharraf falls Is America losing the      war?

Some more rope, General?

Following the attack on Parliament on December 13, several nations are wondering how the Government of India shall react. May I quote what I wrote last week, before the terrorists struck:

"So what is the Government of India proposing to do about it? Actually, very little -- partly because of domestic politics and partly because of old-fashioned bureaucratic inertia."

One week later, I would not change a word. Please do not expect any drama on the lines of the American assault on Afghanistan or Israel's pounding of the Palestinians -- not, at any rate, in the immediate future.

To my mind, however, there is a more interesting, and more pressing, question than the speculation about India's potential reaction. Briefly then: how will General Parvez Musharraf act? Will the Pakistani leader step in to rein in the militants operating from his country and their ISI mentors? Or shall he play the ostrich as his predecessors have done?

I am not sure if the Pakistan president has the strength to take on the militants even if he so wishes. Nor, let us be frank, is this the ideal political climate to take such action.

Pakistan's Afghan policy, on which it spent so much blood and treasure over the past decade, has proven to be a complete failure. When the United States set out to make war, Pakistan had a long list of demands. It wanted billions of dollars worth of aid and military equipment. It wanted a cease-fire during the month of Ramzan. It wanted peacekeeping troops in Afghanistan to be drawn mostly, if not entirely, from Muslim nations. It wanted 'moderate' Taliban elements to take their seats in the new government in Kabul.

How many of these demands have been conceded? Could there be a greater demonstration of Pakistan's failure than that the new ministers in Afghanistan have been making a beeline to New Delhi? (A generation of Afghans, I am afraid, will hate their Pakistani neighbours.)

The cheap option for an unpopular government in Islamabad is to raise the Indian bogey. (Any drop in the popularity ratings almost always leads to increased troop activity on the Indian border!) But this is not quite the time to take a soft line on terrorism in India.

There is plenty of speculation that Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar have taken refuge in Pakistan. There have been direct accusations that the Pakistani establishment -- specifically the ISI -- were less than forthcoming about providing hard information during the Afghan campaign. The last thing any responsible Pakistani leader would want is more suspicion of being 'soft' on terrorism.

I was frankly amazed to hear some Pakistani officials talk wildly about India staging the attack on Parliament! If nothing else, they should have known how eerily reminiscent this was of some accusations that Israel had arranged the World Trade Centre bombing. They should have taken a leaf from Parvez Musharraf's book, and immediately condemned the attack.

Significantly, while Musharraf began by designating the suicide bombers as mere 'armed intruders', he ended by admitting they were 'terrorists'. It was an admission that the old line about 'freedom fighters' simply wasn't good enough.

One of Pakistan's favourite set of 'freedom fighters', the Jaish-e-Mohammed, took credit for the attack. It was hurriedly ordered to step back and disown any such activity.

However, it was all wasted effort. The Indian intelligence may have failed to avert the attack, but it was remarkably quick off the blocks later. Messages to Karachi (and some other places outside India) were intercepted. Initially congratulatory, the tone quickly changed to, 'Do not take responsibility!' There were references too to the 'Buzurg' -- a familiar nickname for the ISI masters.

All this, however, is history. All that Delhi is interested in knowing is what steps Parvez Musharraf proposes to take to prevent any future attacks. Or if, in fact, he is in any position to take such steps...

I forget which prime minister of Pakistan described the ISI as a body that acted as a 'State within a State'. Was it Nawaz Sharief, Benazir Bhutto, or Junejo? Actually, it might have been any of them -- or even General Zia! The truth of the statement is what counts.

As the Pakistani contingent of the Taliban returns home, frustrated and bitter, General Musharraf needs to give them some kind of an outlet for their rage. Jammu and Kashmir would have been the stage of choice even a few months ago. But now that there is a direct and proven link between Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and sundry terrorist outfits operating in Kashmir, this is not a policy calculated to win friends in the United States.

President Musharraf is caught between a rock and a hard place. His domestic constituency wants him to ensure that his 'freedom fighters' continue to be supported by Pakistan. But there is mounting diplomatic pressure to grind down these terrorists. This is not because of any sympathy for India; it is a cold-blooded calculation by the West that these self-same terrorists could turn on them.

New Delhi is facing pressures of its own. The attack on Parliament has drowned out other issues. (The debate on POTO, for instance, died down virtually overnight.) While the government is under pressure to take some action, it is open to debate how useful a vengeful strike would be. I am sure the militants would have left their camps by now anyway!

But Delhi can hold off the rising tide of anger only for so long. And if the United States really wants to avoid an all-out confrontation in South Asia, it needs to put even more pressure on Musharraf to crack down on terrorists.

I sincerely believe that India should play a waiting game for some time yet. Don't give up the option of destroying the militant menace with military action, but don't be precipitate either. Give Musharraf enough rope -- and see whether he uses it to hang himself, or to tie up the terrorists.

T V R Shenoy