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Ceasefire extension fails
to create ripples in Pak

There was hardly a ripple as news reached Islamabad that New Delhi had extended the cease-fire in Kashmir by a month. It was of little interest to people here, who view the gambit of trying to seek peace in Kashmir as one that has very little chance of making any headway.

In the capital, the Indian High Commission sent out invitations for its Republic Day celebrations on January 26, and it is expected to be a full house, as common Pakistanis have always demonstrated that inter-action is the shortest and surest route to improving bilateral relations.

Militant Kashmiri groups, however, vowed to continue the 'holy war', with Hafez Mohammed Saeed of the Lashkar-e-Tayiba stating, "Since Indian atrocities have continued, we declare that we reject the latest Indian offer and will carry on attacks on military targets and personnel. Also, Pakistan has no right to stop our activities because we are fighting inside occupied Kashmir against New Delhi's illegal occupation".

Finally, it was left to the foreign office to react to the latest peace overtures from the Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance government. And as usual it did not disappoint.

There was no way that it would either let the 'enemy' easily off the hook or appear to be publicly seen easing pressure the Indian leadership is under.

"India should respond positively to Pakistan's proposal, for the commencement of a peace process through the resumption of dialogue with the participation of Kashmiri representatives. These offers of cease-fire will be meaningful if it signals an end to Indian repression and commencement of a purposeful dialogue for a peaceful solution of the Kashmir dispute," said a spokesman.

The only change that one could detect from conditions in official reactions was, that no longer was Islamabad talking of a ''tripartite dialogue''. Of late, focus had shifted on New Delhi allowing the All-Party Hurriyat Conference delegation to visit Islamabad.

Former foreign secretary Dr Tanveer Ahmed Khan felt that Pakistan had to react with more grace. "Pakistan's reaction should not have been so dismissive nor cynical, specially given the nature of the conflict, which cannot follow a straight line. There are difficulties ahead for India and Pakistan and we should expect that there will be another round of fighting, violence and even operations by Indian forces. While the three parties -- India, Pakistan and Kashmiris -- will be looking for some common space as yet there is no real peace process to be seen," said Khan.

For the present, at least, voices of reason like that of Khan's are lost in the sound and fury of those bent on dictating terms to the military establishment in the past and see no reason to change their mode of thinking.

"The armed operations have proved the most lethal weapon in the hands of the mujahideen, have completely sunk the morale of the Indian rank and file and have forced the Indian leadership to sue for peace. It is therefore from a position of grave weakness and on the advice of the Indian military high command that the government has initiated the on-going ceasefire and peace parleys," says Lt Gen (retd) Javed Nasir, who has also served as Nawaz Sharief's Inter-Services Intelligence chief.

He also fears that by engaging the APHC and mujahideen leadership in protracted dialogue till the end of winter, and finally not agreeing to any solution, Indians may be planning to sort out the mujahideen well and proper once the momentum of insurgency has been broken during the coming summer, as with the Sikhs and the Khalistan movement.

This is the predicament that Pakistan finds itself in today. The reality is that right now the best move that it can make is to continue and chase the illusion of peace on the border, because there are no other ready options for it to pursue.

"The choice in Kashmir is not between peace and war. It never was, except when impulsiveness drove Pakistan into un-winnable wars. The choice is between no-peace and no-war. This was the situation obtaining till 1989 when the Kashmiri people rose in revolt against India. If the current moves lead anywhere, the best that can be hoped for is a return to the pre-1989 situation, with the Kashmir problem as unresolved as it is today but with a modicum of calm returning to the Kashmir valley. India clearly stands to gain from this. What its army in Kashmir has been unable to win, its diplomatic overtures will achieve," says political commentator Ayaz Amir.

The Complete Coverage: The J&K Ceasefire

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