Commentary/Mani Shankar Aiyar
The only coalition which will survive is one led by a national party
What the middle class will have to realise -- or be tutored to
realise -- is this country cannot be governed by a coalition
of regional parties, however 'national' their outlook is.
Stable
coalitions can only exist if at least one of the national parties
come into government. And in such a government, that national party will obviously be the coalition leader.
Four times over in the last 20 years -- 1977 to
1997 -- the tail has wagged the dog. The four governments, taken together, have remained in office for less than a fourth
of the 20 years. In other words, for three-fourths of the 20 years, it has been
national party rule.
It
is only a national party rule that has provided stable governance.
Ergo, the arithmetic of democracy requires the logic of numbers
to be reflected in the composition of government. Any attempt at
violating this arithmetic will be doomed.
The arithmetic of our democracy is such that
however regionalised elections to the national Parliament get, we are a long way from the combined vote of the
regionals overtaking the share of the nationals. If the regionals
are to reach 270 seats in Lok Sabha, all three nationals will have to
be worsted simultaneously.
Which simply is not going to happen -- any one
national party, yes; any two, possibly; but all three together?
No way.
Likewise, no national party in any proximate future is likely to
get on its own the strength needed to govern without a coalition
of regionals. So, whether we like it or not (and I
certainly don't), the Era of Coalitions is upon us.
The articulate
class has, however, misunderstood what is meant by the Era of
Coalitions. Because we have only had coalitions of regionals
supported from the outside by one or more nationals, the coalition
which the middle class immediately identifies is that model. But a government that does not
command a majority, and relies on outside support, will not survive.
The only one which
will survive is a coalition led by one of the nationals. And not till
such a consummation is achieved will our polity revert to stable
governance. It is this message that will have to be borne in to
the electorate.
Via, of course, the articulate classes.
Mani Shankar Aiyar, continued
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