Commentary/Mani Shankar Aiyar
It is in Bangalore and Madras the shape of the next Dilli durbar will be determined
Next, Karnataka. Deve Gowda flinched from contesting
a Lok Sabha by-election from his home state.
The sensitivity of
his political nose to the direction the wind is blowing there was proved when his candidate was thrashed by the Congress in
the by-election held in his former assembly segment. Karnataka
has traditionally been a Congress bastion. The in-fighting that
brought it down last year has been much less in evidence recently,
especially after former chief minister
S Bangarappa's return.
The 'spoiler' this time round is Ramakrishna
Hegde. His support or opposition could turn the scales decisively.
There are those who say he has a soft corner for the BJP. On the
other hand, he belongs to the Congress diaspora. With the Janata
Dal in Karnataka heading for oblivion, the Hegde factor, I suspect,
will prove crucial. He could propel either the Congress or the
BJP to a large addition of seats in New Delhi. In that sense, it is
in Bangalore and Madras the shape of the next Dilli durbar
will be determined.
Neither in Kerala nor Goa will there be any decisive
change, but Andhra Pradesh is up for grabs. N Chandrababu Naidu has
alienated a substantial segment of women voters -- and others -- by
going back on N T Rama Rao's prohibition. The beneficiary of this drift
away from Chandrababu does not appear to be Lakshmi Sivaparvati. The Congress, which should be the main beneficiary, too, is in some
disarray following the recent leadership change.
Putting all these
factors together, I would say a decline in the number
of Telugu Desam Party seats seems possible. But it is uncertain who will pick
up the Chandrababu seats that fall. In Pondichery, Lakshadweep
and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the status quo will bepreserved -- all three seats will stay with the Congress.
In sum, therefore,
the parties of the United Front will get far fewer seats from
the south than in 1996; but who will gain the seats so lost is
likely to be determined by who gets together with whom in the
run-up to elections.
In the Era of Coalitions, all contenders
will have to recognise an alliance which produce a coalition
is more likely to lead to stable governance than a coalition cobbled
together after election results are in.
In west India, the Congress is most likely to gain in both Maharashtra
and Gujarat. The son of the soil syndrome is
bound to work in Maharashtra in favour of the Congress because
Sharad Pawar would be seen as likely to achieve what the Maratha
confederacy failed to do: win the Dilli simhasan. There
are no national BJP figures in the running.
So Pawar has no Hindutva rivals for the Chhatrapati mantle. And
not even the BJP would let Bal Thackeray aspire to that mantle
in Delhi when the strain of cohabiting with the Shiv Sena in Bombay is seriously beginning to tell on them.
And in Gujarat,
Shankersinh Vaghela's decisive victory in the Radhanpur by-election
points to substantial gains for the Congress and its allies at
the BJP's expense. In Rajasthan, BJP dissidence, contained
at the last minute by Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, could cause it some problems, but, overall, the
1997 result would more or less be comparable to those of 1996.
The west, in sum, will see some Congress gains, no
BJP additions, and, perhaps, a Samajwadi MP or two from Bombay.
In central India, there is Madhya Pradesh --
it was solidly with the Congress in 1984, swung decisively to
the BJP in 1989, swung back equally decisively to the Congress
in 1991, and fell to the BJP in 1996. Patwa taking Chhindwara
in the by-election last February would point to a consolidation
of the BJP in the state, auguring a break in the symmetrical swinging
of the pendulum between the two major contenders.
On the other
hand, adversity has brought a measure of unity in the Congress ranks
not seen in MP for years. With both Narasimha Rao and hawala
behind them, the Shukla brothers, Arjun Singh, Madhavrao Scindia
and Motilal Vora might just find it in themselves to make common
cause with Chief Minister Digvijay Singh and put up a determined
and united fight.
The Congress cannot possibly get less than the
eight seats it wrested last time. After all, it was not the BJP
but the Jain diaries and the CBI chargesheet, and what Rao did
with that, which defeated the Congress in 1996. It is, therefore,
certain the sharing of seats between the Congress and the
BJP will prove much more even this time.
Thus, this is a crucial state to watch. The
Dilli durbar will be formed in Bhopal as much as in Madras and Bangalore.
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