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Jain Commission fallout: Political equations get even more complex in Tamil Nadu

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

With the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam pushed to a corner in Tamil Nadu, what political situation is likely to evolve in the state? While the Tamil Maanila Congress waits for a solution to evolve on its ties with the DMK, the Opposition AIADMK is hoping for a break in the ruling alliance, to try and make electoral capital, with or without its current allies.

"Our position continues to be ambiguous," says a TMC leader. "We would like to distance ourselves from the DMK on the Jain Commission report as part of our long-term goal of striking it on our own. But we still require them if we have to face a snap poll to the Lok Sabha."

Against this, the AIADMK, caught in a thicket of corruption cases dating back to its days in office, hopes that the United Front will either dump the DMK or recommend a snap poll. "We have an issue that can deflect public attention from our plight," says an AIADMK leader. "But more importantly, the Jain report can embarrass and weaken the DMK."

The AIADMK leader believes the ongoing debate on the Jain Commission report could force the TMC to snap ties with the DMK. "The TMC knows it cannot go to the voters on its own right now, and what better chance can we have than forcing an alliance with that party under different circumstances?" asks the AIADMK leader.

The AIADMK leadership is confident of staging a respectable electoral comeback even in a three-cornered contest where the party will be in the company of allies like the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. "Any possible alliance with the TMC could mean our ditching both the MDMK and the Janata Party of Dr Subramanian Swamy. That will be a strategic sacrifice we will have to make."

The AIADMK seems convinced that the BJP will opt for the DMK as a regional ally in any evolving situation and is therefore keen on reviving its ties with the Congress. A senior Congress leader and former Union minister from the Hindi heartland made a stop-over at Madras and conferred with Jayalalitha last fortnight, on his way to Bangalore. This Congress leader is said to have briefed Sonia Gandhi later on his discussions.

"This," claims the AIADMK source, "shows Sonia Gandhi's interest in Congress politics and her attempts at working out regional arrangements with local parties. Should she take an active role in the Congress and also an interest in the AIADMK, it will become difficult for the TMC and its leader G K Moopanar to strike a different note, particularly based on the Jain report."

For its part, the DMK, party insiders confide, is keen on continuing with the United Front, and also in the Gujral government. "But given the evolving state-level equations, where the TMC is keen on walking away from the alliance at an early date and also the party's continued 'loyalty' to the Congress in national politics, we have been forced to take a pro-BJP stand," says a DMK leader.

Should the UF force the DMK out of the ruling coalition, the party may help the BJP form a government or support a BJP government from outside. "Our leadership may also openly canvass for the BJP among UF partners who may abstain from voting, helping the minority BJP government win the Lok Sabha's confidence. The BJP may then order a general election from a position of comparative strength."

The DMK is confident of a BJP-led government at the Centre after a mid-term poll and is not overtly concerned about the TMC alliance beyond a point. Says the DMK leader: "Yes, the TMC alliance will make us more credible on the Jain report, and also get us a few more seats than if we contest an election alone. But whatever be the electoral outcome, with a BJP regime at the Centre, we have nothing to fear for our state government's future."

In his analysis, it's the TMC that will stand to lose both in credibility and numbers, if it broke away from the DMK now. "If the TMC contests the election alone, they will lose seats. But if they combine with the AIADMK, they will lose credibility and also the identity which Moopanar thinks will help the party fight on its own some day. Anyway, what decision will Moopanar take if the present crisis leads to the formation of a minority BJP government at the Centre, supported by some of the United Front partners?" he asks.

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