Future Tense

Does a team's form leading up to the World Cup determine the next champion? Judging from the number of people (and pundits) who have Australia and South Africa on their lips as winners of World Cup 2003, it would seem so.

But the figures suggest otherwise. Except in the 1979 edition of the tournament, which the West Indies firmly entered as favourites and finally won, the top team based on form prior to the championship has never won the World Cup.

In 1983, the West Indies, who were then the top one-day side, were toppled by seventh-placed India.

Form cuts both ways. In 1987, Australia, who were placed fifth in the rankings before the tournament began, took home the trophy. In 1992, the Aussies who were at the top of the table, failed even to qualify for the last four.

The 1996 champion, Sri Lanka, had a miserable time prior to the tournament and were placed a lowly sixth with a win percentage of 43. But the team went on to win the title without losing a single game in the tournament.

Ditto South Africa in the last World Cup. Having won 75 per cent of the matches in the four years running up to 1999, the Proteas were firm favourites. But it was the fourth-placed Australians (win percentage: 50.66) who took away the honours.

So, what do these figures mean in 2003? Australia (win percentage 73.56) and South Africa (64.42) enter the fray as the top-two teams. Will they buck the trend? Or will the current favourites end up biting the dust?

And in the midst of all that, is there hope for India, which enters the tournament placed fifth in the rankings? Or is it cold comfort?