Why Kenya v Zim is crucial

It's not likely to be the most attractive Super Six match; but so much depends on the Kenya-Zimbabwe encounter to be played on March 12.

Let's see how every Super Six team is likely to be viewing this encounter. In what follows, we assume that Australia will defeat Kenya in their final Super Six match.

India:

If they have defeated Sri Lanka on March 10, then India might want a Kenya win. Because, at that point, India with 16 points would already be in the semi-final and would be looking at an opportunity to play Kenya again in the semi-final. If India have lost to Sri Lanka then they would like Zimbabwe to win because that would leave Kenya stranded at 10 points, and guarantee India a place in the semi-final even if they go on to lose to New Zealand also.

Kenya:

They would obviously like to defeat Zimbabwe because that would practically guarantee them a semi-final berth over New Zealand (if New Zealand have lost to Australia on March 11, then Kenya are assured a semi-final berth if they win!). If Kenya lose, then their semi-final dream is over.

Zimbabwe:

Zimbabwe are already in big trouble. A loss to Kenya would eliminate them and badly bruise their ego. If they win, then Zimbabwe must hope they defeat Sri Lanka while New Zealand lose to both Australia and India.

Sri Lanka:

They want Kenya out quickly, especially if they have lost to India! If, however, Sri Lanka defeat India, they might want Kenya to win. This is because if Sri Lanka defeat Zimbabwe too, they go up to 15.5 and give themselves a chance of a ‘revenge win' over Kenya in the semi-final.

New Zealand:

At no cost do they want Kenya to defeat Zimbabwe! That takes Kenya to 14 points and New Zealand -- unless they defeat Australia -- would be stranded at 12 even if they go on to defeat India.

Australia:

They could afford to view the Kenya-Zimbabwe match with lofty disdain. But their preferred outcome would be a Kenya victory because that opens up the prospect of playing Kenya in their semi-final match.

We haven't considered a few very improbable scenarios in this discussion. We are also assuming no tied matches and no rain for two consecutive days.