Commentary/Mani Shankar Aiyar
The middle class is determined to marginalise the Congress in the next polls
That the chattering classes hold the Congress and its president
Sitaram Kesri wholly responsible for the present crisis is indisputable.
Nor can it be disputed that it is the articulate middle class
which sets the tone for victory or defeat at any hustings. This
is the class which believes it is the Congress' duty to ensure
stability by putting national interest over that of the party's.
The withdrawal of support to H D Deve Gowda, just as his government
began demonstrating its capacity to govern, has, in the eyes of
this determining class, confirmed all it has held against the
Congress. This class is determined
to marginalise the party in the next polls.
If they
succeed, a new era will indeed be inaugurated in Indian politics.
If they do not, the real questions arising from the present
crisis will remain unanswered. And when these real questions
are raised -- and answered -- it will be seen by both the opinion-making
middle class and the electorate that the Congress,
far from being marginalised as the polity evolves into the second
half-century of Independence, will continue to be the defining
parameter of where we go from here.
We have before us three possible scenarios. The first is governance
by the Sangh Parivar. The second is governance by a coalition
of regional parties. The third is rule by the Congress -- probably
not entirely on its own, but at the head of a
coalition.
The middle class is tempted by the first, but is still
wary of what it implies. An increase in the strength of Bharatiya Janata Party's
and its allies is on the cards; but an exponential
leap into governance by them is a somewhat distant prospect.
Governance by a congeries of regional satraps is what the chattering classes prefer. But there just are not
enough votes that the regionals can gather to escape from the
trap of governing not at their own pleasure, but at that of one or more of the national parties.
There are three nationals -- the BJP, the Communists and the Congress.
For reasons of expediency and realpolitik, the nationals may,
at any given time, support a coalition of regionals. But all three
have demonstrated that while their outside support might lead
to a government formation, such support is inherently
incapable of guaranteeing governance.
In 1977-79, even though
the Sangh Parivar actually merged its identity with the regionals,
the merger took but months to come unstuck. There has not been another attempt to forge coalitions
through merger since then. Nor will there ever be.
Then came the Vishwanath Pratap Singh government in 1989-90. It was a major new
experiment in Indian politics -- the propping up of a regional coalition
by outside support from two nationals (the Communists
and the BJP) to keep out the third national (the Indian National
Congress). The experiment lasted less than a year. The regionals, just as the national parties, fell out with each other.
This was followed by another group of regionals -- the Chandra
Shekhar government -- supported by the BJP from outside. It took but six weeks for that
arrangement to reveal its non-viability. A few more weeks and the arrangement came to an unregretted end.
Now we have just witnessed
the experiment of two nationals -- the Congress and the Communist Party of India-Marxist --
surreptitiously joining hands to keep the third national out by propping
up our fourth government. Of regionals. That too has
ended.
Mani Shankar Aiyar, continued
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